Adakah Pengaruh Event dalam Economic Calendar terhadap Gold Price (XAU/USD)?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36982/jiegmk.v11i1.1058Abstract
ABSTRACT
This research is based on phenomena that exist in the world of traders who make events in the economic calendar as one of the fundamental analysis references in making trading decisions. Event data released in the economic calendar are expected to have an impact on the market. This study aims to determine whether there is an influence of the event released in the economic calendar on the gold price (XAU/USD). Data analysis techniques in this study using SPSS, namely IBM Statistics SPSS 24. Data analysis methods in this study are the dependent methods. This study uses monthly event data and the monthly gold price (XAU/USD) for 3 years, namely the period 2017 to 2019. The gold price in this study is the change in the price of spot dollar gold futures (XAU/USD), while the event in this study are events that are estimated to have a high and moderate impact on the price of gold futures (XAU/USD). From five hypotheses in this study, there were three hypotheses that were accepted and two hypotheses that were not accepted. The results in this study, the Federal Funds Rate variable has a positive influence on the price of gold (XAU/USD), the ISM Manufacturing PMI variable, the Unemployment Rate, ADP non – farm employment have negative influence on the price of gold (XAU/USD). Whereas, Average Hourly Earning does not have a significant effect on the price of gold (XAU/USD).
Keywords:Â Event, Economic Calendar, and Gold Price (XAU/USD)Â ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini didasarkan pada fenomena yang ada di dunia pedagang yang membuat peristiwa dalam kalender ekonomi sebagai salah satu referensi analisis fundamental dalam pengambilan keputusan perdagangan. Data acara yang dirilis dalam kalender ekonomi diharapkan berdampak pada pasar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah ada pengaruh peristiwa yang dirilis dalam kalender ekonomi terhadap harga emas (XAU/USD). Teknik analisis data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan SPSS, yaitu IBM Statistics SPSS 24. Metode analisis data dalam penelitian ini adalah metode dependen. Penelitian ini menggunakan data peristiwa bulanan dan harga emas bulanan (XAU/USD) selama 3 tahun, yaitu periode 2017 hingga 2019. Harga emas dalam penelitian ini adalah perubahan harga emas berjangka spot dolar (XAU/USD), sedangkan event dalam penelitian ini adalah event yang diperkirakan memiliki dampak tinggi dan sedang pada harga emas berjangka (XAU/USD). Dari lima hipotesis dalam penelitian ini, ada tiga hipotesis yang diterima dan dua hipotesis yang tidak diterima. Hasil dalam penelitian ini, variabel Federal Funds Rate memiliki pengaruh positif pada harga emas (XAU/USD), variabel PMI Manufaktur ISM, Unemployment Rate, ADP non-farm employment memiliki
pengaruh negatif pada harga emas (XAU/USD). Sedangkan, signifikan terhadap harga emas (XAU/USD).
Kata Kunci:Â Peristiwa, Kalender Ekonomi, Harga Emas
References
Ghosh, D., Levin, E.J., Macmillan, P. and Wright, R.E. (2002). Gold As An Inflation Hedge?, University of St. Andrews, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper Series.
Ghozali, Imam. 2016. Aplikasi Analisis Multivariete dengan program IBM SPSS 23. Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Husnan, Suad. 2009. Dasar – Dasar Teori Portofolio & Analisis Sekuritas. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN
https://www.investing.com/ diakses tanggal 15 januari 2020.
http://www.rfinancindoberjangka.com/ diakses tanggal 02 januari 2020.
Öztürk, F. ve Açıkalın, S. (2008). Is Gold A Hedge Against Turkish Lira?, South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 3, 35–40.
Republik Indonesia. 2014. Peraturan Pemerintah No. 49 Tahun 2014 tentang Penyelenggaraan Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi.
Republik Indonesia. 2011. Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 10 Tahun 2011 tentang Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi.
Republik Indonesia. 1995. Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 8 Tahun 1995 tentang Pasar Modal.
Sjaastad, L.A. (2008). The Price of Gold and the Exchange Rates: Once Again. Elsevier, Vol 33 , Pages 118-124.
Smith, G. (2001). The Price of Gold and Stock Price Indices for the United States. Adrienne Roberts FT Personal Finance, p 14.
Suharto TF. 2013. Harga Emas Naik atau Turun Kita Tetap Untung. Jakarta (ID): Elex Media Komputindo.
Toraman, Cengiz & Başarır, Çağatay & Bayramoglu, M.F.. (2011). Determination of Factors affecting the Price of Gold: A Study of MGARCH Mode. Business and Economics Research Journal. 2. 37-50.
Trijuni, Eko (2020). https://www.foreximf.com/blog/cara-analisa- fundamental diakses pada tanggal 2 juni 2020.
Wicaksono, M Yusuf (2016). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs Dollar, dan Suku Bunga terhadap Harga Emas di Indonesia.Jurnal Pendidikan dan Ekonomi, Volume 5, Nomor 2, Tahun 2019.
ISSN PRINT : 2089-6018 ISSN ONLINE : 2502-2024
Kaewkheaw M., Leeahtam P., Chaiboosri C. (2014) An
Analysis of Relationship between Gold Price and U.S. Dollar Index by Using Bivariate Extreme Value Copulas. Advances in Intelligent Systems
and Computing, vol 251.
Zhou, Y., Han, L., & Yin, L. (2018). Is the relationship
between gold and the US dollar always negative? The role of macroeconomic uncertainty.Applied
Economics, 50(4), 354-370.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
Â
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
Â
LP2M Indo Global Mandiri University has the right to multiply and distribute the article and every author is not allowed to publish the same article that has been published in this journal.
