Electricity Energy Demand in Banjarnegara District for the Year 2021-2030 Using Linear Regression Method and Leap Software

Abstract

Electricity demand is expected to increase from year to year. Central Java's electricity demand in 2013 reached 18.205 GWh with a total of 8.092.964 customers. This energy demand has increased in 2018 to 22.945 GWh with a total of 10.011.388 customers. Continuous use of electricity, both directly and indirectly, will also affect economic needs and people's welfare. It is estimated that electricity sales will continue to increase in line with the growth of customers who will also continue to increase. In predicting the need for electrical energy, various forecasting methods are commonly used to predict the need for electrical energy, such as the Regression Method, Time Series Method, Causal Method, Neural Network Method, and Dynamic System Analysis Method. In predicting the need for electrical energy there are advantages and disadvantages of the forecasting method. Based on the availability of data, this research analyzes forecasting the demand for electrical energy in Banjarnegara district using the regression and time series method which is applied using LEAP software. The results show that the total demand for electrical energy using the regression method in 2030 will reach 50.616 GWh while the LEAP software in 2030 will be 59.677 GWh.